Where previous Oliver Wyman forecasts predicted a gap between supply and demand of nearly 30,000 in 2032, we now anticipate a smaller shortfall of 17,000. In 2023 and 2024, that gap is also at about 17,000. The biggest spread between supply and demand is now expected in 2026 when we project it reaches 24,000.
How real is the pilot shortage?
This shortage has resulted in fewer flights to some of the smallest cities across the U.S. Major carriers like American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and United Airlines have acknowledged this issue. Moreover, the supply-demand gap is projected to last until 2027, with an estimated shortage of about 10,000 pilots.
Do pilots age faster?
The effect is utterly negligible. If a pilot flew at 600 mph (most commercial jets actually go a little slower than this) non-stop for 70 years, the time dilation effect would amount to less than a thousandth of a second.